I'm laying the road chalk in this game, I think both teams are mirror images of each other, but Lousiville has the better QB. Both teams have balanced attacks running and passing 50% of the time. Both teams are average at running the ball to below average although Louisville is a bit better and same goes in run defense as both teams are stout at stopping the run with Louisville being a little better. That means that this game is going to be put on the arm of these QB's and turnovers will play a critical role in the outcome. Cinci is -5 in turnover margin on the year and -4 in their last 3 games while Louisville is +15 so expect turnovers to be the reason why Louisville win it or lose it.

I'll also take Bridgewater over Kay who has faced some awful competition this year. He has not faced a single team ranked in the top 50 in opposing QB rating defense while at least Bridgewater played UCF and had a good game. He's passing for a higher %, more yards per attempt and has a 25 TD to 3 INT ratio compared with Kay who is 22/9. The biggest difference is Bridgewater does not get rattled on the road and I think he'll be able to quiet this crowd very early on. Who has the better pass defense? It's really hard to say because neither of them have been truly tested, but Lousiville has more talent and has been more consistent. The two times Cincinnati faced a capable QB or passing game was against SMU who passed for 403 yards 2 TD and 0 INT and Illnois who passed for 312 yards and 4 TD and 0 INT. Louisville's pass defense is stacked and solid all year allowing a 98 QB rating in conference play which is 19 pts better than Cincinnati against the same opponents. They're allowing just 50.8% completions 5.8 yards per attempt and have allowed only 8 TD to 14 INT.

At the end of the day this is going to be a tight game, but I think Louisville can pull it off as I think Cinci has had the much easier schedule and has been far less dominating.

Where to find Freddy?